Can Bradley Wiggins lose the Tour de France?

Is a mechanical the only way to beat
Wiggins at this year's Tour de France?

With under a week to go, talk has turned on how Bradley Wiggins can lose this Tour. How times have changed.

Such has been the dominance of Team Sky at this year’s race, we can be forgiven for getting a little complacent. It leads to the obvious question: can Bradley Wiggins actually lose this year’s Tour?

On current evidence, probably not. But here are some ways it could happen:

Crash
Yes, it is a little pessimistic, but a crash could scupper the Kilburn man’s dreams. Assuming he can continue to ride following any crash that may befall him, it shouldn’t have too much effect.

The conceived wisdom that the peleton stops when the yellow jersey crashes/has a mechanical will have even more weight after Wiggins neutralised the group today. It was a canny move which should assure him a safety net against any issues from hereon.

Of course, not everyone buys into it. As Rolland showed today, one person’s misfortune is another’s opportunity and don’t be surprised if a rider placed high in the GC tries to take advantage should Wiggins come a cropper. We can expect Evans to wait, but what of Nibali? Those spats in the press earlier in the race may make a cheeky dig more tempting.

And what of Wiggins’s own colleague, Chris Froome? As Tejay van Garderen showed yesterday, taking a jump on your team leader is not beyond the realms of possibility and Froome’s comments to L’Equipe certainly suggested a frustrated rider.

However exciting the prospect might be, the chances are Froome will obey team orders and wait for his leader in the event of misfortune.

Audacious attack
With just two big mountain stages left, the chances to take a bite out of Wiggins are diminishing. In fact, you could argue the real race now is between Evans and Nibali for a spot on the podium.

For this reason we can expect Nibali to have a go. Assuming the Sky train is in order, the chances of getting the necessary time to bring Wiggins out in a cold sweat remain slim.

This race is really crying out for an audacious attack akin to Frank Schleck on Stage 18 of last year’s Tour. The issue here is that the two riders capable of a punchy attack strong enough to shake off the Sky train – Contador and Schleck – are not in the race.

In fact, the irony is that the one rider who has looked capable of getting a jump in this year’s race is Wiggins’s own right hand man, Froome.

Time trial
The penultimate stage of this year’s race is a time trial, which should play into the hands of Froome and Wiggins, although it’s not without concern.

Firstly, the starting order is dictated by GC position. Assuming neither of the two mishaps above happen between now and Saturday, we can expect Froome to go off just before Wiggins with a two minute deficit.

Of course, this is much harder to manage as the riders will ride alone against the clock. It’s unlikely, but should Froome have a flier and Wiggins fatigue badly, Sky will have the unenviable task of telling Froome to slow down. Now that could get ugly.

The other issue is a mechanical. As Tony Martin has proved twice in this year’s Tour, punctures are not uncommon during a time trial. Should Wiggins have an issue with his bike, it could make things very tight at the top with no unwritten rule to slow his competitors down further up the road or teammates on hand to pace him back. It’s a tenuous proposition, but possible nonetheless.

ConclusionAlthough these are possible ways Wiggins could lose this year’s race, they mostly rely on him being struck down by bad luck. As Cadel Evans showed yesterday, when it’s not your Tour, it’s not your Tour, and this seems to be Wiggins's year.

He missed all the big crashes in week one and even managed to not puncture when carpet tacks were thrown on the road today. In short, unless there is an audacious attack which blows the race apart on Wednesday or Thursday, Wiggins should be crowned on Sunday.